By Bob Gaydos

Yevgheni Prigozhin
… man without a country?

I’m not sure if Yevgeny Prigozhin is the bravest or dumbest man in Russia. Well, I guess Belarus now. However, I have no doubt he has shown the world that Vladimir Putin’s 20-year, vise-like grip on the reins of power in Moscow has slipped.

   Even if that weakening is ever so slight, in Putin’s Kremlin that is cause for concern for him.

    Prigozhin’s dramatic  Saturday dash for Moscow with his Wagner fighting forces electrified and captured the attention of the world only to fizzle out just as TV commentators were getting used to the words Russia and revolution in the same sentence.

      Just as dramatically as it had begun, it was over. What happened? It remains the 64 million ruble question.

      First reports said that Putin’s patsy neighbor, Alexander Lukashenko, president of Belarus, had brokered a deal giving Prigozhin amnesty in Belarus and Putin dropping treason charges in exchange for Prigozhin calling off his apparent assault on Moscow. The Wagner forces would also not face charges and would be allowed to join the Russian military.

      Prigozhin reportedly said he turned his troops around to “avoid spilling Russian blood.”

       Then what was the point? He had been clear and very vocal about his displeasure with the way Russia’s military leaders have been conducting the war in Ukraine. He had gone even further, accusing Russian troops of attacking his Wagner forces. He was demanding a change in leadership at the top.

      The dramatic (and easy) seizing of Rostov-on-Don, a key military headquarters in Russia and the movement of a force of mercenaries hundreds of miles unhampered towards Moscow certainly seemed like Prigozhin was finally turning his words into action. Reports said the Wagner forces were cheered as they left Rostov-on-Don to head to Moscow.

       Later reports, however, quote Prigozhin saying he never intended to actually try to seize power in Moscow but rather, apparently, just make a show of force to bring about a change in Russia’s military leadership.

     Well, I’m not an expert on Russia, but I have been around long enough to know that Vladimir Putin does not take kindly to other Russians publicly challenging his leadership, never mind sending a well-trained fighting force to do something or other in Moscow. Nor does he usually forget calling someone a traitor.

     Nor am I convinced that Lukashenko could come up with such a deal so quickly as to stop a rebellion literally in its tracks. I see the hand of Putin in that and I also see Prigozhin being a fool if he thinks he is safe in Belarus. If anything, Lukashenko’s regime is worse than Putin’s and Belarus is virtually an annex of Russia.

    If Prigozhin stays there, he’s going to have someone testing his water or vodka before drinking for the rest of his life. Poison is Putin‘s favorite means of getting rid of enemies. This looks like a quick stop for Prigozhin just to go elsewhere. But where would he be safe or welcome?

      Meanwhile:

— Putin went incognito for a few days while the Russian parliament went about passing a law prohibiting private mercenary groups such as Wagner.

— Russian state-controlled media continue to report that treason charges against Prigozhin are still on the books.

— Wagner forces returned to Ukraine, though apparently not sure what their next mission would be or who would be their commander. The uncertain future of the Wagner group, the most brutal Russian forces fighting in Ukraine, was good news for Ukraine.

— Ukrainian forces hoped to take advantage of the chaos in Russia in their counteroffensive against Putin’s troops.

— There was no indication of any changes in leadership of Russia’s military command.

— Russia’s military power was once again shown to the world to be much less than advertised.

— Putin reappeared to insist that his Kremlin team and, indeed, all Russians remained united against any forces who wanted them “to fight each other.” He was also left to wonder if, next time, the revolution won’t make a U-turn on the highway to Moscow.

rjgaydos@gmail.com

Bob Gaydos is writer-in-residence at zestoforange.com.