Posts Tagged ‘prediction markets’

A Moment of Clarity for Pirro?

Monday, August 3rd, 2026

By Bob Gaydos

Jeanine Pirro ... headed for the door?

Jeanine Pirro … headed for the door?

   What in the world happened to Jeanine Pirro? Did she sober up? Come out of a blackout and realize she was pimping for Donald Trump and didn’t want the job?

    Odds are — literally — that she won’t be U.S. attorney for the District of Columbia much longer. At least those are the betting odds on Kalshi, a prediction platform which is the way many people apparently now react to the news of the day. Not by expressing approval or disapproval of the news, but by betting on the outcome. Orwell was right.

     How you feel about the news really doesn’t matter, apparently, if you can make a few bucks guessing on which side of the bed Trump slept on last night. And the odds in Pirro’s case are that he didn’t sleep at all when she contradicted him on his Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool story.

     In one of the more surprising challenges to Trump’s  view of everything going on around him, Pirro dismissed the case against a former U.S. Olympic athlete who had been charged with carving up the bottom of the no longer reflecting pool with a knife, supposedly causing significant damage. That’s what the court papers filed by Pirro originally said.

    But Pirro last week abruptly dismissed the felony vandalism charges against David Hearn, 67, saying that the damage to the newly renovated pool was caused by the contractor, a friend of Trump’s, who got the renovation contract with no bid. A $14.7 million restoration project to be specific.

    Pirro conceded in court that the damage had actually been done by a rush job by a contractor trying to get the work done for the Fourth of July celebration, not by vandals.

    In response to Pirro’s dropping the charges, Trump posted, “I disagree 100% with Jeanine Pirro. I don’t know what she was thinking?” (Yes, he put a question mark at the end of that declarative statement.)

   The reflecting pool, of course, has been one of Trump’s pet projects in his campaign to destroy virtually everything worth seeing in Washington, D.C. Also, of course, Trump does not react well to being contradicted in public, especially by someone who he has appointed to a job, and especially if she is a woman.

    That’s why the odds on Kalshi of Pirro announcing her resignation or being fired before Sept. 1 were at 97 percent Monday morning. The odds spiked 21 percentage points over 24 hours. There was a 94 percent chance, the site said, that Pirro is gone before January 1, 2027.

    None of this is surprising to me. What I am literally stunned about is that Pirro did it. That she dared to contradict Trump publicly in such a high-profile case. She tried to blame the Interior Department for her change of mind, saying they gave her incomplete information when she first filed the charges against Hearn. They stuck to the Trump story (and probably kept their jobs) and said she got all the information available.

     Maybe Pirro actually read all the news stories saying experts doubted that vandals could’ve done the extensive damage to the pool, but that the contractor rushed the job and used the wrong kind of paint. Maybe she knew from experience that the judge wasn’t going to buy her vandalism argument. Or maybe she didn’t like the bar scene in Washington anymore or she just found it too difficult to keep lying so publicly on a daily basis.

    Or, maybe she’s been offered a seat along with Tucker Carlson, Marjorie Taylor Greene and Thomas Massie, in a cabal of former Trumpers sensing an opportunity to get out before the you-know-what hits the you-know-what. The onetime loyal MAGA trio is trying to form a populist third-party, breaking away from Trump, accusing him of “betraying“ his base.

    Where have I heard that before?

     I still like my coming out of a blackout theory.

    

     

Unsolicited Advice and Other Stuff

Friday, May 8th, 2026

By Bob Gaydos

7BAE9787-3DD4-4646-8941-964C9BF6D2F2      “Thanks, man.”

      Maybe he said “chief.” Or “boss.”

       It wasn’t “pal” or “bud” or “dude.” But it might just as well have been for the casual way it was tossed. At least it wasn’t “ace” or “bro.”

        This column will fall in the category of unsolicited advice (from me) and other stuff (from elsewhere).

        Before I get to the advice, let me say that I’m well aware of the pitfalls surrounding that activity. But I’m also creeping up on 85 years old and have been labeled a curmudgeon by my former newspaper colleagues years ago. I choose to look upon it as a recognition of experience and a license to, if not kill, be truthful and possibly helpful because please don’t waste my time and maybe what I have to say will prove useful to you in the future.

       Dude.

       So I took care of some personal stuff the other day that was long overdue in that category. The young man who helped me was maybe 20. Could’ve been older, but looked young and talked a lot about super heroes and video games. I take those as clues.

        He did a nice job but he saved me some money and cheated himself out of a bigger tip by not offering some extra available services which I would have been happy to receive. When it came time to pay, I handed him the cash and signaled to keep the extra as a tip.

     “Thanks, boss.”

     No. (Here comes the advice.) I’m at least 60 years older than you. I was not insulted or offended by what you said. More surprised than anything else. I am not your “man.” Or “boss.” Or pal, dude, ace, bro, chief or bud. Seriously. Haven’t you ever heard the phrase, “Thank you, sir?” Especially since you work in a service job where it literally pays to be polite to older clients? Age has its limits, but it also merits some recognition, unless you’re a serial killer or delusional politician.

     Since it’s more likely that the parents of young men who talk about super heroes movies will be reading this than they will, maybe you can try to pass on some useful advice to your sons (for some reason, I think the daughters get this) on how to interact with clients who are significantly older than they are. I know it can sometimes be challenging, but somebody’s got to do it. 

    And finally, young man, when it comes to accepting the tip, there’s an old newspaper saying that may be useful: When in doubt, leave it out. Drop the “chief” or “man” or “boss.” You can even drop the “sir.”

    “Thank you” is a complete sentence. It always works and it never gets old.

      Alright, getting the ego in check. That’s it for curmudgeoning, bros.

                              ***

     In the other stuff category,:

— Maybe it’s just me, but: I see that the Senate recently had a rare great idea. It has moved to ban participation in so-called prediction markets by all senators and staff members. The House should also approve, on the rare occasion when it’s actually in session.

— Maybe it’s just me, but: The life of a baseball manager may not be as enjoyable as some may think. May had just begun, but the season had already ended for Boston Red Sox manager, Alex Cora. He’d been fired. But barely had he finished packing his bags when he was offered the job as manager of the Philadelphia Phillies. They had fired Rob Thomson, the most successful manager in the team’s history, a couple days after Cora got canned. Cora thought the offer over and immediately decided he’d rather spend the summer with his family in Puerto Rico than in Philadelphia. He turned down the job. The Phillies then looked in-house and offered the job to Don Mattingly. The former Yankee great was bench coach for the Philadelphia team. Mattingly took the job on an interim basis, saying he wasn’t sure he wanted to do it full-time because he’s getting a little old and wasn’t sure he had the energy for it. Some endorsement. He also might have been thinking of the problems he might run into as manager since a lot of decisions on who to play, when to play them and how to make up your batting order often come from the front office. The Phillies general manager and Don’s boss is Preston Mattingly, Don’s son. Hmmm. Wonder how long this arrangement will last.

    — Maybe it’s just me, but: I’ve come to think that not everything that comes from the government is the pure truth. You know all those gold coins you’ve been collecting that were produced by the U.S. mint from pure gold mined in America only? Guaranteed? The New York Times recently ran an investigative piece detailing how the mint for decades has been using gold produced in other countries, some in fact mined by drug cartels. The gold is apparently still pure, thankfully, but the rest of the story is pure BS.